tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Newark via Dulles: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:00 ROC → 16:21 IAD
    UA 4521 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 21m · 92% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:42 IAD → 19:10 EWR
    UA 1831 · United · 1h 28m · 59% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 10mROC 15:00 to EWR 19:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.