tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 65%

  1. 17:35 IAD → 18:54 PHL
    UA 4534 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 19m · 66% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 06m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:38 MHT
    AA 5966 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 96 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 06m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 03mIAD 17:35 to MHT 23:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.