tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 63%

  1. 17:35 IAD → 18:54 PHL
    UA 4534 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 19m · 66% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 16m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:10 PHL → 23:41 ROC
    AA 6090 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 31m · 85% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 106 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 16m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 06mIAD 17:35 to ROC 23:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.