tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Los Angeles via Newark: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:10 DCA → 16:30 EWR
    UA 4560 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 22m · 64% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 EWR → 20:40 LAX
    UA 2641 · United · 6h 10m · 72% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 30mDCA 15:10 to LAX 20:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.