tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 14:56 XNA → 16:59 ORD
    UA 4564 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 03m · 69% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 21:10 DCA
    UA 1369 · United · 2h 10m · 50% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 14mXNA 14:56 to DCA 21:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.