tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Manchester via Dulles: arrives on time 59%

  1. 19:45 PHL → 21:10 IAD
    UA 4587 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 25m · 84% on time, 11.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 IAD → 23:59 MHT
    UA 4270 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 49m · 84% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (11.4% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 14mPHL 19:45 to MHT 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.