tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:45 MSN → 19:00 ORD
    UA 4603 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 15m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:47 ORD → 22:19 DTW
    UA 2426 · United · 1h 32m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip3h 34mMSN 17:45 to DTW 22:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.