tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Atlanta via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:45 MSN → 19:00 ORD
    UA 4603 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 15m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 ORD → 23:30 ATL
    UA 2770 · United · 2h 21m · 69% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 45mMSN 17:45 to ATL 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.