tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:45 MSN → 19:00 ORD
    UA 4603 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 15m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 ORD → 23:39 EWR
    UA 759 · United · 2h 32m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 54mMSN 17:45 to EWR 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.