tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:45 MSN → 19:00 ORD
    UA 4603 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 15m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 ORD → 22:01 DEN
    UA 767 · United · 3h 01m · 71% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 16mMSN 17:45 to DEN 22:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.