tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → New York via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 09:58 BNA → 12:13 DFW
    AA 3397 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 16m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 DFW → 17:56 JFK
    AA 1049 · American · 3h 46m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 58mBNA 09:58 to JFK 17:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.