tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Sacramento via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:54 AUS → 20:11 DFW
    AA 3402 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 17m · 62% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 DFW → 22:33 SMF
    AA 3314 · American · 3h 34m · 59% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 39mAUS 18:54 to SMF 22:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.