tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Billings → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 12:53 BIL → 16:54 ORD
    AA 3428 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 00m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:47 ORD → 20:37 SEA
    AA 3105 · American · 4h 50m · 44% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Billings). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip8h 44mBIL 12:53 to SEA 20:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.