tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 10:42 BNA → 12:38 ORD
    AA 3439 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 56m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:29 ORD → 16:18 BUF
    AA 4913 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 64% on time, 7.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (7.2% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 36mBNA 10:42 to BUF 16:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.