tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → San Antonio via Phoenix: arrives on time 59%

  1. 15:20 SEA → 18:25 PHX
    AA 3440 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 01m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:38 PHX → 23:58 SAT
    AA 3832 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 20m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 38mSEA 15:20 to SAT 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.