tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → El Paso via Phoenix: arrives on time 77%

  1. 15:20 SEA → 18:25 PHX
    AA 3440 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 01m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PHX → 23:59 ELP
    AA 3874 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 14m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 155 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 39mSEA 15:20 to ELP 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.