tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Providence → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 13:38 PVD → 15:30 ORD
    AA 3453 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 52m · 90% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:33 ORD → 20:04 JFK
    AA 1421 · American · 2h 34m · 57% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 29mPVD 13:38 to JFK 20:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.