tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 21:20 DTW → 21:57 ORD
    AA 3500 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 37m · 72% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:10 MSN +1 day
    AA 3728 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 10m · 74% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip3h 50mDTW 21:20 to MSN 00:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.