tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Dallas-Fort Worth via Phoenix: arrives on time 39%

  1. 13:00 STS → 15:09 PHX
    AA 3514 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 09m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:15 PHX → 20:53 DFW
    AA 1663 · American · 2h 38m · 65% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 53mSTS 13:00 to DFW 20:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.