tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tucson via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 29%

  1. 19:26 ORD → 22:08 DFW
    AA 3544 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 42m · 73% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:54 DFW → 23:11 TUS
    AA 1109 · American · 2h 18m · 52% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 46mORD 19:26 to TUS 23:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.