tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Newark via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 37%

  1. 09:30 HOU → 10:59 DFW
    AA 3573 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 29m · 80% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:47 DFW → 16:20 EWR
    AA 2861 · American · 3h 33m · 56% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 50mHOU 09:30 to EWR 16:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.