tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Bozeman via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:18 IAH → 17:48 DFW
    AA 3583 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 30m · 70% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 DFW → 20:43 BZN
    AA 1774 · American · 3h 08m · 56% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 25mIAH 16:18 to BZN 20:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.