tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Philadelphia via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 26%

  1. 16:18 IAH → 17:48 DFW
    AA 3583 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 30m · 70% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 DFW → 22:57 PHL
    AA 3242 · American · 3h 22m · 47% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 39mIAH 16:18 to PHL 22:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.