tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Aspen via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:18 IAH → 17:48 DFW
    AA 3583 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 30m · 70% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:52 DFW → 20:17 ASE
    AA 6419 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 25m · 61% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 59mIAH 16:18 to ASE 20:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.