tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Chicago via Miami: arrives on time 20%

  1. 19:37 JAX → 20:57 MIA
    AA 3605 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 20m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MIA → 00:26 ORD +1 day
    AA 2323 · American · 3h 36m · 63% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 49mJAX 19:37 to ORD 00:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.