tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 60%

  1. 05:00 XNA → 06:20 DFW
    AA 3614 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 20m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:08 DFW → 07:34 PHX
    AA 474 · American · 2h 26m · 84% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 34mXNA 05:00 to PHX 07:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.