tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:04 MHT → 13:57 ORD
    AA 3668 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 53m · 84% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 194 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 59m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 56mMHT 12:04 to DCA 20:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.