tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 14:20 MEM → 16:23 ORD
    AA 3675 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 03m · 63% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 40mMEM 14:20 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.