tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 14:20 MEM → 16:23 ORD
    AA 3675 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 03m · 63% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:34 ORD → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3261 · American · 3h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 59mMEM 14:20 to PHX 19:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.