tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:30 MEM → 20:22 DFW
    AA 3677 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 52m · 63% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:29 DFW → 22:06 PHX
    AA 3239 · American · 2h 38m · 61% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 37mMEM 18:30 to PHX 22:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.