tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 16%

  1. 18:24 RDU → 20:07 ORD
    AA 3696 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 43m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ORD → 23:58 SFO
    AA 3054 · American · 4h 42m · 32% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip8h 18mRDU 18:24 to SFO 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.