tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Pittsburgh via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:24 RDU → 20:07 ORD
    AA 3696 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 43m · 57% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 ORD → 23:52 PIT
    AA 4539 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 44m · 79% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 30mRDU 18:24 to PIT 23:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.