tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 05:00 MSN → 06:15 ORD
    AA 3702 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 15m · 100% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:02 ORD → 10:03 DCA
    AA 2965 · American · 2h 01m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 03mMSN 05:00 to DCA 10:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.