tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 67%

  1. 13:56 BOS → 15:59 ORD
    AA 3711 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 05m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 30m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 ORD → 22:04 SDF
    AA 4603 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 75% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 165 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 30m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 08mBOS 13:56 to SDF 22:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.