tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:28 GRR → 17:52 ORD
    AA 3715 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 75% on time, 5.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 ORD → 21:59 PHL
    AA 2443 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 38mGRR 17:28 to PHL 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.