tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:50 MSN → 16:02 ORD
    AA 3716 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 12m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 18m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 ORD → 21:36 LGA
    AA 1724 · American · 2h 21m · 49% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 93 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 18m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip5h 51mMSN 14:50 to LGA 21:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.