tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Dallas-Fort Worth via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 14:50 MSN → 16:02 ORD
    AA 3716 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 12m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:51 ORD → 19:28 DFW
    AA 2988 · American · 2h 37m · 46% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 38mMSN 14:50 to DFW 19:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.