tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:43 MSN → 20:13 ORD
    AA 3717 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 30m · 79% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:42 ORD → 00:55 PHL +1 day
    AA 490 · American · 2h 14m · 56% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 13mMSN 18:43 to PHL 00:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.