tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Omaha → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:48 OMA → 21:42 ORD
    AA 3738 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 73% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Omaha). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 25mOMA 19:48 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.