tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Pensacola → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 54%

  1. 15:48 PNS → 19:15 DCA
    AA 3742 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 28m · 65% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 DCA → 23:30 ORD
    AA 4419 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 42mPNS 15:48 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.