tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 12:01 MHT → 13:52 ORD
    AA 3747 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 51m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:07 ORD → 20:25 PHL
    AA 1848 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip8h 24mMHT 12:01 to PHL 20:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.