tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 45%

  1. 16:55 RAP → 20:22 DFW
    AA 3762 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 82% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:29 DFW → 22:06 PHX
    AA 3239 · American · 2h 38m · 61% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 12mRAP 16:55 to PHX 22:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.