tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:25 RAP → 18:59 ORD
    AA 3767 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 34m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 35m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 170 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 35m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip9h 48mRAP 15:25 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.