tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 58%

  1. 15:25 RAP → 18:59 ORD
    AA 3767 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 34m · 81% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 37m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 172 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 37m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 57mRAP 15:25 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.