tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Redmond → San Diego via Phoenix: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:48 RDM → 16:16 PHX
    AA 3770 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 28m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:06 PHX → 18:18 SAN
    AA 2466 · American · 1h 12m · 46% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 30mRDM 13:48 to SAN 18:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.