tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 16:47 TVC → 17:26 ORD
    AA 3772 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 39m · 85% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 29m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 ORD → 23:59 DCA
    AA 1187 · American · 2h 04m · 58% on time, 11.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 164 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 29m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (11.8% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 12mTVC 16:47 to DCA 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.