tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:32 TYS → 19:50 ORD
    AA 3783 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 18m · 57% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 00:33 BWI +1 day
    AA 4663 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 01mTYS 18:32 to BWI 00:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.