tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Denver via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 54%

  1. 11:09 SDF → 12:30 DFW
    AA 3788 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 21m · 90% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:17 DFW → 14:21 DEN
    AA 420 · American · 2h 04m · 77% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 12mSDF 11:09 to DEN 14:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.