tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 64%

  1. 13:18 SDF → 14:40 DFW
    AA 3791 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 22m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:34 DFW → 15:59 PHX
    AA 554 · American · 2h 25m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 41mSDF 13:18 to PHX 15:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.