tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 72%

  1. 06:16 SEA → 09:18 PHX
    AA 3792 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 02m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 PHX → 16:12 ORD
    AA 2252 · American · 3h 57m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 56mSEA 06:16 to ORD 16:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.